Weekly Market Update

2019 MONETARY POLICY LOOKS LESS CERTAIN AS NOVEMBER READS CONTINUE TO BE RELEASED

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Many expect that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates at its meeting next week. However, in light of various economic concerns, the hikes expected next year do not seem as certain to some. While the Producer Price Index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.1% growth in November, another indicator of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index has remained steady since September. These factors, coupled with Wednesday's announcement that the November Consumer Price Index was flat despite continued low employment and rising wages, have some analysts thinking that President Trump's skepticism around recent Fed actions wasn't unwarranted. Economists don't sense an immediate economic decline on the horizon, but in a recent poll conducted by Duke University, 82% of the 212 CFOs surveyed believe a recession is likely by the end of 2020.

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